Case 1: CCOUC Findings and Work on Vulnerability
Established in 2011, the Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC) aims to build capacity and conduct evidence-based research, education, and knowledge transfer in disaster and medical humanitarian response. Recognised as an IRDR International Centre of Excellence (ICOE) since 2016, CCOUC has significantly advanced the systematisation and practical under, CCOUC has significantly advanced the understanding and systematisation of vulnerability over the past through targeted research and field practice.
CCOUC’s key contribution to disaster risk reduction (DRR) focuses on vulnerable populations and remote settings, highlighted by two major streams of work:
Disaster public health and older people: CCOUC’s flagship work addresses the unique physical, mental, and social vulnerabilities of older adults during emergencies, particularly in low- and middle-income country settings. Experiencing socioeconomic marginalization, isolation, and inaccessible information, older populations face heightened health risks from intensifying natural hazards. CCOUC’s framework bridges gerontology, public health, and humanitarian practice, outlining individual, community, and national actions to safeguard older people while leveraging their under-utilized capacities for response and healthy aging.
Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (HEDRM) in Resource-Deficit Settings: Through its Ethnic Minority Health Project (EMHP) spanning the 2000s to 2020s, CCOUC has addressed localized vulnerability across mainland China. The project covered 13 ethnic minority groups across 9 provinces through 61 field trips involving over 800 staff and students. Utilizing a sequential workflow, vulnerability and needs assessment, HEDRM intervention, and impact Evaluation, the team established scientific evidence on household fire risks, structural earthquake safety, flooding, water insecurity, food safety, and risk perceptions. Emphasizing cultural humility over standardized brochures, CCOUC deployed interactive community talks, bilingual classes, games, and tailored take-home preparedness kits, directly empowering over 18,000 rural villagers to reduce their disaster vulnerability.
Case 2: Vulnerability Assessment in Japan’s National Resilience Plan
Vulnerability assessment is a key component of Japan’s National Resilience Plan. Natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and extreme weather can cause catastrophic damage, while social changes, including concentrations of population and assets in urban areas, ageing infrastructure, and demographic and socioeconomic changes, can further increase disaster impacts. In megacities, disruption of critical functions can have cascading consequences extending beyond the affected area and even across national borders. Vulnerability assessment is therefore essential for identifying weaknesses, understanding how they amplify disaster impacts, and determining priorities for preventive action.
Recognizing this importance, IRDR ICoE-Coherence contributed to the development of the 2026 Science Council of Japan recommendation, “Science, Technology, and Innovation to Strengthen Disaster Resilience in Megacities Facing Catastrophic Disaster Risks.” The recommendation emphasizes risk assessment that considers not only hazards but also exposure and vulnerability, based on quality-assured data. Vulnerability is understood broadly to include physical and social weaknesses in land use, infrastructure, lifeline systems, and health, medical and welfare services. Such assessment enables decision-makers to prioritize DRR measures and investments, promote risk-informed development, and demonstrate the benefits of preventive investment, thereby supporting a shift from reactive disaster response toward proactive resilience building.
A practical example of vulnerability assessment in Japan is the assessment of potential impacts from an anticipated Nankai Trough Earthquake. According to damage estimates revised in March 2025, fatalities could reach approximately 298,000 nationwide, including 215,000 from tsunamis, 73,000 from building collapse and 9,000 from fires. In addition, disaster-related deaths were estimated for the first time at 52,000, while economic losses could reach approximately 270 trillion yen. These estimates illustrate how the concentration of population, assets and critical functions in areas exposed to major hazards can lead to catastrophic consequences. Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, Japan’s major metropolitan areas, all include coastal zones where large populations and substantial assets are concentrated in low-lying areas, increasing their exposure and vulnerability to catastrophic disasters.
ICoE-Coherence contributed to the development of the 2026 Science Council of Japan recommendation on strengthening disaster resilience in megacities. Drawing on such assessments, the recommendation emphasizes that vulnerability extends beyond the physical fragility of buildings and infrastructure. It includes vulnerabilities associated with land use, infrastructure, transportation and lifeline systems, and the capacity of health, medical and welfare services to continue functioning during disasters. Social and economic conditions can further amplify these vulnerabilities and hinder evacuation, emergency response and recovery.
Understanding these interconnected vulnerabilities helps identify where preventive action is most needed and which measures should be prioritized. Reliable, quality-assured data are essential for assessing these vulnerabilities and comparing the effectiveness of different measures. Assessment results can inform risk-based land-use management, relocation to safer areas, strengthening of infrastructure and lifeline systems, business continuity, and preparedness of health and welfare services. By linking risk assessment with DRR investment, vulnerability assessment provides a basis for prioritizing preventive investment, demonstrating its benefits, and shifting from costly post-disaster responses toward proactive resilience building.
